A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
